The Commerce Department announced Thursday that the Nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.7%, for the third quarter. Is it time to celebrate that the economic recovery has arrived?
GDP tracks the size of our economy by calculating the total dollar value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period in comparison with the previous quarter. For 2012 GDP slumped to 2% in the first quarter, and 1.3% for the second, so the announcement of 2.7% for the third quarter is good news.
Is this a great indication you might ask? Well any increase is good, however this would only add up to 2.1% for 2012. Looking back at the most recent recessions, from a presidential term perspective, provides some challenging information.
- Economic recovery under Ronald Reagan, GDP averaged 4.4% from 1995 – 2000, assuming you take out his first two years in office, where there was negative GDP, as it took some time for his policies to take affect.
- Bill Clinton took office in weak economic times, but not nearly as bad as Reagan. Under Clinton, GDP averaged a decent rate of 3.1% from 1994 – 2000. This assumes you don’t take into consideration his 1st year in office, when there was negative GDP.
- Under President Barack Obama it has averaged 2.1% if you don’t include his first year with negative GDP. How does this compare to those other Administration’s first few years in office? In Reagan’s first 3 good years GDP averaged 5.3%, and for Clinton it averaged 3.4% for his first 3 good years in office.
In conclusion: The economy is growing at a much slower rate that it needs to in order for it to lift unemployment, prevent more middle-class people from sliding into poverty, and to help those stuck there. Fiscal Cliff, Federal Debt, unemployment, and global economic crisis will continue to weigh down progress.